Climate and Sustainability Action Plan 2023 - 2027 p1
Our Commitment
“Mid and East Antrim Borough Council will lead by example and work in partnership with local communities to develop a sustainable borough, safeguarding the future of our economy, society and environmental assets.”
Our Goals
We are aiming to achieve this by:
- 30% reduction in council operation emissions by 2030
- Decarbonize small vehicles in our fleet by 2030
- Council operation emissions to net zero by 2040
- Supporting the borough to net zero by 2050
- Climate resilience in our buildings, public spaces and infrastructure.
Our Climate Action Plan set goals to achieve this through:
Good Governance and Community Leadership
Leading by example to develop a Council which includes sustainability and climate change in all decision making and empowers citizens to create a just transition to net zero.
Protection of the Environment
Protecting the natural environment within our borough to enhance biodiversity, increase carbon capture and improve the health and wellbeing of our citizens.
The Economy
Driving sustainable economic growth, supporting local communities, businesses and agriculture in transitioning to a circular economy and providing opportunities for the development of clean, green technologies in the local area.
Transport
Reducing emissions across our fleet and supporting the development of sustainable and active travel within the organisation and throughout Mid and East Antrim.
Resource Management
Using resources efficiently and sustainably, to reduce consumption and support a low carbon circular economy across the council and borough.
Buildings and Energy
Improving energy efficiency and use of renewable energy across the council estate and promote low carbon solutions in the wider borough.
Who we are
Mid and East Antrim spans approximately 1,046 km2 and is home to 139,000 people. Located within County Antrim our borough stretches from the River Bann in the west to the Antrim Coast, taking in the southern part of the Antrim Coast and Glens Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty, as well as the towns of Ballymena, Carrickfergus and the key port of Larne.
Our vision
“Mid and East Antrim will be a strong, vibrant, safe and inclusive community where people work together to improve the quality of life for all.” It is important that we achieve this sustainably to allow us to meet our needs in a way that allows future generations to also meet their needs.”
What is Climate Change?
Climate change is the long-term shift in average weather patterns across the world and the increase in extreme weather events. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlight in its most recent report how human activities are extremely likely to have resulted in the unprecedented warming observed since the pre-industrial era via increased emission of greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2014).
The Greenhouse Effect
The earth is surrounded by a layer of gasses which retain some of the heat from the sun’s rays and prevent it from radiating back into space. This is called the Greenhouse effect - a natural process without which earth would not be warm enough for life to survive. Human activity, mainly from burning of fossil fuels, releases greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and sulphur dioxide. This has resulted in an increase in this layer of gases around the earth, resulting in higher levels of heat being trapped and therefore a warmer world.
The IPCC has warned urgent action is needed to cut greenhouse gas emissions and limit warming to at least 2°C and preferably 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial values, to avoid catastrophic impacts of climate change. The most recent data from the IPCC confirms that human-induced climate change is already causing observable adverse impacts and damages to both people and nature, beyond typical variability of the climate (IPCC, 2022).
Climate Change Impacts
Warming of the planet is now unequivocal and concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are now at higher concentrations than have been recorded in the last 800,000 years (IPCC, 2014). The impact of this on our climate has been observable for decades, with the last three decades being successively warmer than any decade since 1850 (IPCC, 2014). In the UK, all of the top ten warmest years since 1884, have occurred since 2002 (Met Office, 2021).
At present carbon emissions are estimated to have led to 1.1°C rise above pre-industrial levels (IPCC, 2023). Globally these higher temperatures have resulted in an increase in heatwaves, drought, floods, extreme storm events, wildfires and sea-level rise.
Observed Impacts in Mid and East Antrim
Already we can clearly see the impacts of climate change in our borough – these changes in typical weather conditions can effect council services, local infrastructure, native flora and fauna, result in significant costs to rectify and in the most extreme instances put human life at risk.
Extreme Heat
A warmer world has led to on average hotter summers throughout Northern Ireland, with 2022 being confirmed as the UK’s hottest year on record (Met Office, 2023). This is particularly impactful during the summer months, when we are more regularly experiencing high temperatures, resulting in increased pressure on water availability and tourism hot spots.
Wildfires have become more common, damaging habitats and wildlife. Gorse fires occurred in 2018 and 2019 in areas such as Carrickfergus and Greenisland, endangering native animal species and destroying the habitats on which they depend.
Extreme heat also impacts local biodiversity with potential negative impacts on animal species due to heat stress and water scarcity.
Additionally, native tree species are more likely to be impacted by disease or heat stress during hotter summer months. These warmer conditions also cause additional risk to human health, particularly for the very young and very elderly.
Increased Rainfall and Flooding
Across the UK winters between 2009 and 2018 have on average been 12% wetter than winters between 1961 and 1990. Summers have also been on average 13% wetter for the same time periods (Met Office, 2021). Higher levels of rainfall has put MEA at increased risk of flooding, and in cases where heavy, prolonged rainfall occurs after a long dry, period, there is a risk of flash flooding.
Our area has experienced numerous episodes of flooding in recent years including 2012, 2015 and 2018, resulting in property damage, disruption to residents’ lives and damage to local parks and infrastructure.
In 2020 the Department for Infrastructure Rivers Agency estimated that flooding would put 4,700 homes in the MEA area at risk as a result of climate change (Weir, 2020) which will have both negative economic and social impacts on the borough.
Extreme Cold – Ice and Snow
In contrast to the extreme heat, the region has also experienced extreme cold snaps in winter which can lead to issues with freezing water pipes and transport disruption from increased snow and ice. Extremes in temperature can also have negative impacts on native flora and fauna who can be disrupted by these unusually cold conditions. In 2010 the district experienced a prolonged period of cold temperatures, coupled with high levels of ice and snow. This resulted in disruption to transport and bin collection services. Similar cold and snowy conditions in 2016 led to communities in the Glenravel area being cut off and necessitated the emergency plan protocol to be engaged when rural communities had to be supplied with provisions including bottled water and medical supplies.
Increase in Storm Activity
Mid and East Antrim has experienced more frequent and intense storm activity in recent years, resulting in tree falls, damage to property, risk to human life and travel disruption. Storm activity is particularly disruptive in the coastal areas of our borough, where rough seas and coastal winds can lead to severe damage to marinas, coastal erosion and landslides on coastal rock faces. In 2016, there was extensive damage to Larne Promenade from the impact of the sea during storm events. This has further economic and social impacts via disruption to transport routes and tourist attractions.
Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Mid and East Antrim
The UK Met Office predicts future climate change will lead to warmer and wetter winters, hotter and drier summers and more frequent and intense weather extremes (Met Office, 2021). However the degree of impact will vary depending on the action taken now and in the near future.
Predictions of the impacts of future climate change vary across a range of scenarios with low to high emissions of GHGs, depending on the action we take to reduce our emissions. The different scenarios are referred to as Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs. This plan will consider two scenarios relating to RCP2.6 (Low Emissions) and RCP8.5 (High Emissions).
These scenarios provide both an optimistic and pessimistic option for future scenarios, where average temperatures by 2100 are reaching 2°C and 4°C respectively. RCP2.6 is a scenario where GHG emissions peak in the 2020s and decline, reaching net zero in the latter half of the century. This is a Low emissions scenario.
RCP8.5 is a “business as usual” scenario where GHG emissions continue throughout the 21st century in a similar manner as they do today. This is a High emissions scenario and is the potential outcome if significant efforts to reduce our emissions are not made in the near future (Mackie and Wentworth, 2017).
|
Parameter |
Scenario Predictions |
Examples of Likely Impacts |
|---|---|---|
|
Temperature |
Under a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) temperatures are expected to be up to 2.8°C warmer in summer and 2.2°C in winter (DEFRA, 2020) By 2070 under high emission scenarios (RCP8.5) summer temperatures are estimated to be up to 4.9°C warmer and up to 3.9°C warmer in winter (DEFRA, 2020). Summer heat waves, similar to that of 2018, are 50% more likely to occur by 2050 (Met office 2021) |
Increased heat induced illness and mortality Increase risks from pests and disease Increased risk to flora and fauna as a result of heat stress Increased spread of invasive species Increased visitors to tourism hot spots/ open spaces Impacts on infrastructure Reduced risks from cold/ice/snow in winter Reduced heating bills in winter months |
|
Winter precipitation |
Under a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) winters could be up to 17% wetter.
Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) winters could be up to 25% wetter (DEFRA, 2020). |
Increased risk to life and human safety from flooding, including mental health impacts Increased risk to property and infrastructure from flooding resulting in economic impacts Negative impacts on water quality |
|
Summer precipitation |
Under a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) summers are estimated to be up to 28% drier. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) summers are estimated to be up to 38% drier (DEFRA, 2020). |
Reduced water supply and increased likelihood of water conservation measures being needed Increased risk of wildfire Negative impacts on flora and fauna due to water scarcity. Increased frequency and severity of surface water flooding following intense rainfall after long dry spells |
|
Frost and snow |
Across the UK, under all emissions scenarios, declines in snow cover are projected, with lying snow predominantly confined to northern and mountain areas by 2100 (Met Office 2021) |
Potential reduced costs for heating/infrastructure treatment for snow/frost. However, cold spells can still occur resulting in risks to human health and infrastructure and resulting in significant expenditure for treatment of transport routes |
|
Sea Level |
By 2100 a rise of 11-52cm under a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) and 33-94cm under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) is projected for the Belfast region (DEFRA, 2020). |
Increased risk of coastal flooding Increased risk of damage to coastal habitats and infrastructure. Increased impacts from storm surges and high tides |
The magnitude and rate of climate change impact depends greatly on mitigation and adaptation actions taken in the next decade. Rapid, effective action is needed to limit the impacts as far as possible and governments and public bodies need to act. Our Climate Action Plan sets out a framework for climate action in Mid and East Antrim, with the ultimate aim of reaching net zero across the council by 2040.